Till Christian Budelmann on our positioning after the combination of virus induced economic weakness and the oil price shock has led to a significant decline in equity prices: “As a response, our economists have cut some of their key economic forecasts even further. We now forecast that the recession in Italy and Germany will be deeper than anticipated. But we maintain our view that economic activity should start to rebound by the end of the second quarter or at the beginning of the third quarter as the outlook for the epidemic becomes clearer (our base case). However, the risks are rising that the virus-related hit to growth may turn out to be even more protracted. On the equity side, we hold on to our neutral positioning as we see a balance between a deteriorated macroeconomic and technical picture on the one hand and attractive cross-asset valuations and extremely negative investor sentiment (a contrarian indicator) on the other. With regard to fixed income, we remain long duration for USD investments. And on the alternative investments side, we have reduced our crude oil positioning and have increased our Gold position even further.” (…)
29.05.2026