Till Christian Budelmann, our capital market strategist, sees three possible scenarios for the economy and markets going forward: “Scenario A (containment) implies that the outbreak will be more or less contained by late March/early April, limiting the disruption mainly to the first quarter. As of today, this scenario seems to be more than fully priced by markets. Scenario B (escalation) suggests that new cases continue to rise around the world culminating by late May/early June and that the disruption to economic activity continues until the end of the second quarter. This scenario should be more or less priced by markets by now and certain segments already appear attractive under these assumptions. In a third Scenario (C – massive escalation), the virus continues to spread into the third and maybe even the fourth quarter of this year, causing disruption until year end and possibly triggering a global recession – a scenario that is certainly not priced by markets today. We consider scenario B to be most realistic at this point in time.” (…)
28.02.2026